Saturday, August 12, 2006

Comments on the Proposed Ceasefire

Here's a summary of the proposed U.N. "peace deal" for Lebanon and Israel:
U.N. resolution: Steps toward a permanent cease-fire in Lebanon

-- The resolution calls for the "full cessation" of fighting. Hezbollah would stop all attacks, and Israel would be limited to defensive military operations.

-- Once fighting ends, the U.N. force would be expanded from 2,000 to 15,000 troops to help deployment of Lebanese soldiers and withdrawal of Israeli forces.

-- It spells out a series of steps toward a permanent cease-fire and a lasting political solution, including the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon.

-- It stresses that the Lebanese government must be the only armed force in the country.

-- It requests international aid for the Lebanese people.
I have several comments on this, but they all boil down to: What on earth do they think is going to make Hezbollah abide by this agreement? Let's keep one thing in mind here. Hezbollah started this. They invaded Israeli territory just for the kicks they get from pulling the Israeli tail, and Israel reacted, big time. Worse, Hezbollah is getting major PR goodies on the Arab street for their valiant stand against the evil Zionists. They say they'll quit per the deal, but really, they have no incentive to quit. Why would they? We'll see whether they do. (How many of those damn' Katyushas do they have, anyhow? And how are they getting resupplied, if they are?)

I've heard remarks about Israel's incursions into Lebanon's sovereign state. That's ridiculous. Between Syria and Hezbollah, Lebanon isn't a sovereign state. They certainly have no control over their foreign policy: Hassan Nasrallah is in charge of that. The deal suggests that the Lebanese government should be the only armed force in the country; of course it should; and from that I deduce that at this point, Hezbollah is the Lebanese government, since it's clearly the only armed force in the country.

I'd also like to know where the extra 13,000 soldiers will come from, with which the agreement proposes to reinforce UNIFIL. This falls into the "You and what army?" category. At the best of times, the U.N. has trouble getting people to put boots on the ground under those blue hats, and the situation in Lebanon is disastrous. The U.S. has already weaseled out. Who's going to provide 13,000 additional U.N. troops? Santa Claus? The Arab League should, but in their hearts they think Hezbollah's doing just fine.

The only part of the deal that actually makes sense is the request for international aid for the Lebanese people. If only the people who promise millions of dollars in aid were willing to write the actual checks...


  1. Anonymous7:34 AM

    Intriguing analysis by an Israeli.

    Anonymous David

  2. Wow. I read Uri Avnery's article and he's spot on. I hadn't made the connections myself - I blame being on vacation, when I turn off the input from the news - but once he points them out, they're blinding. The Israelis are ignoring the great law of guerrillas (regular armies can NOT defeat them, beginning with us in 177x), and are still fighting the last war (a problem they share with the U.S. Defense Department, which is currently fighting somewhere along the Mekong, metaphorically speaking).

    I would like to note that someone has to be resupplying Hezbollah with Katyushas from somewhere. They can't possibly have stockpiled enough to carry on this kind of bombardment for this long. This would raise the question: why don't the Israelis know about that? Except that Mr. Avnery has already addressed that point...

  3. The other point in the Avnery article that fascinates me is that, by this analysis, General Halutz planned to win this war with the same strategy which failed Hermann Goering in 1940. You can't win a war with air power alone. Goering tried.

  4. Anonymous8:45 PM

    Yeah. I'm still absorbing some of the points Avnery raises.

    Anonymous David

  5. And here we are, a week or so into the ceasefire, and there's no sign that Hezbollah has any intention of disarming, or that the Lebanese government has any intention of trying to make them do so. Dark days ahead, brothers and sisters.